4nm is doomed? "The Era of 1000-yuan Phones" is strangled directly by memory

Value is being created, but it’s flowing to upstream manufacturers, not to players. This generation of 1,000-yuan phones is basically heading for a gap.

Let’s look at the ledger first: in today’s budget phones, memory alone already eats up over 30% of the bill of materials. Flash storage takes nearly another 20%, so together they directly account for more than half of a cheap phone’s cost. Entry-level and mid-range models were never very profitable, and with this kind of cost structure, manufacturers have no room left to pile on better components. The “999, what a steal” you were used to will mostly turn into “specs boomerangs” going forward.

The result is straightforward: many brands are starting to abandon updates in the 1,000-yuan segment instead of gritting their teeth and swallowing the cost pressure. Resources are being pulled out and thrown into high-end and flagship models, where margins are higher, marketing is easier, and the financials look better. The impact on players is equally concrete: with a budget between 1,000 and 1,500, you’ll mostly be buying fake upgrades. The shell is new, the name is new, but the core hardware stays put or even backslides.

Upstream suppliers are responding just as decisively: production of 4nm chips is being cut, by about 15 to 20 million units. Converted, that’s twenty to thirty thousand wafers, with capacity being pulled directly out of the mid-range and low-end processor market. This shows that demand for mid-range and low-end SoCs has clearly cooled, which is linked in a straight chain to the retreat of 1,000-yuan phones. The “new chips” you see on the shelves are in reality just inventory being cleared plus minor tweaks like frequency adjustments.

TSMC’s choices are also very clear: part of the 4nm production lines is being converted to 3nm, following the profit. The upside is that 80–90% of the equipment can still be used; the downside is that the conversion takes a 6–12 month time window. After the switch, advanced-node capacity will be more concentrated, and flagships and foldables will actually live even more comfortably. Mid-range and low-end chips will be pushed to the margins, and the generational pace of SoCs available to players will visibly slow down.

The buying advice for regular players can be summed up in one line: if the budget isn’t enough, don’t chase brand-new entry-level models. Either grit your teeth and move up to a stable price band—say, mainline series around 2,000—or simply go for clearance older flagships. At this point in time, being an early adopter of a 1,000-yuan phone is very likely just paying “tuition fees” to memory manufacturers. Wait until this round of production line conversion and inventory games is over; the next wave of price–performance options will likely be much more reliable.